Monkeys Tossing Coins

Apologies to the well respected Joseph Buchdahl from www.football-data.co.uk for stealing the title for this article. I find it appropriate and creative at the same time so couldn’t resist using it. I swear the rest of the article are my very own words… 🙂

It is oh-so-tempting to check a half-decent tipster-platform and sign up with a tipster who is being promoted as the next big thing. Even for more experienced punters it is sometimes hard to resist.

Just out of curiosity I fired up my browser and checked a popular tipster platform which read the following stats for the tipster topping the table: 893 bets, 19% yield, 9524 followers.

Damn it, that’s too good to be true, isn’t it? For someone to show a 19% yield over such a ‘large’ sample he must have what it takes, right? Also if he continues that performance the €50 for monthly sub-fees are covered in no time…

But hold on. Are we missing something?

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The Single Biggest Mistake Punters Make

The majority of this article will deal with the financial investment world, but the principles are equally relevant to sports betting.

It is perhaps the greatest paradox in the investment world that many consistently profitable money managers have a large percentage of losing clients. I recently saw the records of a very successful US Hedge Fund, that showed over 40% of their lifetime client base had actually lost money while investing with the fund! This fund had a relatively consistent record of double digit annual gains over decades! This rather odd story is by no means isolated, it is repeated within many successful funds.

So, what causes this phenomena?

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