The Real Kelly – an #excel implementation for independent concurrent outcomes

In my previous articles we have already seen how the generalised Kelly Criterion can produce completely different results than the simplified Kelly formula that most bettors will use when there are multiple edges in the same game.

There are, of course, occasions when you might have multiple edges on different games, all taking place at the same time. The example below is one such situation:

This article will explain usage of an excel implementation applying the Real Kelly Criterion to concurrent events.

In detail the algorithm will find optimal bet sizes for a set of concurrent singles and/or ’round robin’ combinations of parlays or teasers.

I recommend reading carefully through @Pinnacle ‘s article covering the basic concept of the generalised Kelly The Real Kelly

The excel template can be downloaded here real_kelly-independent_concurrent_outcomes-

Please note that the worksheet supports singles & parlays up to 6 selections. In my next article I will publish a python implementation using the same algorithm for an unlimited number of selections.


  • Make sure to open both GlobalMinimize and the Real Kelly worksheet.
  • Fill out the yellow fields in the ‘selections’ sheet. You can rename ‘Bet 1’, ‘Bet 2’, to whatever you like, e.g. ‘Manchester United +0.5’. ‘MY_ODDS’ is what you consider to be the fair odds. Say you have a total of 4 selections, then you can skip the respective fields in row 6 and 7. Those selections will be ignored.

Screenshot 2020-03-22 at 21.33.45

  • Switch over to the corresponding acca sheet. If you have 4 selections then select acca-4.

Screenshot 2020-03-22 at 21.21.06

  • Fill out the yellow fields with all combinations you want to have bets for (1…include selection / 0…exclude selection). The template is pre-populated with all singles and doubles. Say you also want to have the 4-fold included then add an additional row 1-1-1-1 and drag-fill columns E to L. You can cherry-pick ANY combination you like to have included from a possible 2^N-1 combinations.
  • Set all stakes to 0.
  • Press CTRL+M to open GlobalMinimize settings.
  • Adjust the stake range/constraints according to your needs.
  • Select Differential-Evolution (DE) followed by Nelder-Mean (NM) and hit ‘Minimize’.

Differential-Evolution (DE) followed by Nelder-Mean (NM) should be your default option, as it increases the likehood of finding the global maximum, and NM ‘polishes off’ the optimum with a high degree of accuracy.

Depending on the field size the algorithm can now take several minutes until excel populates the optimal set in the stakes column.

Have fun!

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