Choose Your Enemies Well

When it comes to poker, sports betting or any other game of chance your profits are almost never determined by your skills alone, but also by your opponents’ skills.

I was merely in the upper middle class of poker players and needed to be in a game with some bad ones to be a favourite to make money. Fortunately, there were plenty of these bad players – what poker players call fish – during the poker boom years.

There is a learning curve that applies to poker and to most other tasks that involve some type of prediction. The key thing about a learning curve is that it really is a curve: the progress we make at performing the task is not linear. Instead, it usually looks something like the figure below – what I call the Pareto Principle of Prediction.Read More »

My Life As A Gambler

I have been involved in gambling for basically my whole life in one way or the other. At the age of 15 me and a few of my best friends launched a betting ‘syndicate’ and decided to crush our local books big time. A few months later reality had caught up on us and we had lost all our money. It was a significant sum for a 15-year old and I was hard pressed to explain that to my parents! Looking back from a distance now we were naïve at that time, to say the least. We have comitted the same mistakes over and over again to make sure not to end up with a profit. However I don’t blame us now. We just didn’t know better.Read More »