Separate the SIGNAL from the noise.
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For a quick start I recommend watching this 3-part series
#1 Getting Started https://youtu.be/j-J3AL2UFK0
#2 Editing & deleting a bet https://youtu.be/jzxRzTnCjCQ
#3 What do all these values mean? https://youtu.be/s-aOSVbuFao
👉 Log your bets and keep track of profits + clv (closing line value) with this easy-to-use app.
👉 Backtest your models, strategies and your favourite tipsters with a database dating back to 2021.
👉 Add future bets and retrieve current odds, expected win & clv, so you know exactly where you currently stand with your bet. Updated every minute.
👉 Automatic grading of your bets, including scorelines.
👉 RATING from A – F measuring the quality of your bets.
👉 LUCK FACTOR from -3 to +3 giving you an idea of how lucky/unlucky you were with the results of your bets.
👉 41 unique sports, 15159 unique leagues supported.
👉 1.5 million fixtures and growing.
👉 Fulltime, halftime, quarter markets supported and many more.
👉 Moneyline, spread, totals & team_totals supported.
👉 Corners & booking markets supported.
👉 Export option allows you to download and share your bets.
👉 Clean & simple, no-nonsense interface & interactive dashboard.
👉 Precise clv calculation using @12Xpert ‘s logarithmic function, explained in his article here https://tinyurl.com/woc12Xpert
👉 Tag your bets and apply it as a filter for future analysis.
👉 Performance graph showing actual vs expected profits.
👉 Do not get fooled by randomness ever again. Use clv as the ultimate predictor of your profitability.
❓ WHY WOULD I WANT YET ANOTHER TRACKING APP ❓
Because it calculates your clv/edge accurately. Probably THE most important thing to know if you want to be a long-term winner.
A basic requirement to profitable betting is to log your bets. At a bare minimum you want to log EVERY BET and know your overall P/L + ROI for each strategy/model you follow.
You can then apply all sorts of metrics to your sample (such as ROI, P-VALUE). However many of them won’t be very helpful to make any meaningful conclusions!
Most of the commonly used metrics will suffer from small sample sizes and/or Survivorship Bias as discussed in this article here https://tinyurl.com/illusionofskill
Worst case is that you end up with a false positive, i.e. the illusion that you have an edge when in fact you have none.
WHAT YOU WANT IS A CLEAR SIGNAL. A metric that tells you if and what edge you have over any particular market.
Enter CLV. Closing Line Value.
❓ WHAT IS CLV AND WHY IS IT SO IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND ❓
In a nutshell clv compares the odds you take against the true closing odds. The true closing odds are the odds just before kickoff with the bookmaker margin removed. Since the true closing odds reflect the true probability of an outcome quite accuratey, you will know instantly if you have made a value bet or not.
For the math-savvy, here is the formula.
clv = o / t – 1
where
o…are the obtained odds, i.e. the price you took at your book
t…the true closing price, a.k.a. the no-vig closing price
This means IF THE OBTAINED PRICE IS HIGHER THAN THE NO-VIG CLOSING PRICE YOU MADE A VALUE BET!
IN OTHER WORDS: NO CLV = NO EDGE!
Understanding closing line value (= clv) is absolutely vital for aspiring sports bettors. As soon as you get a grasp on this metric you will think completely differently (and properly!) about your bet.
All of a sudden the outcome becomes irrelevant!
If you take a bet at 3.5 and it closes at 2.8. Happy Days. Regardless of whether the bet wins or not.
That’s how professional bettors think!
@nishikoripicks nails it with his 2-part video!
Part I: https://youtube.com/watch?v=-uLJUhbFD_U
Part II: https://youtube.com/watch?v=MZCeHiywKvs
Another thing of beauty is that you do not need a very large sample if analysing for clv. Usually 50 – 100 bets will suffice to get a good idea where you are heading. Hence if your clv is +2.50% over 100 bets then you can be pretty confident that this is approximately your expected roi.
⚠️ WHAT THIS TOOL CAN NOT DO ⚠️
It can not track special bets. Hence if you’re mainly betting prop markets & exotic derivatives then this tool is not for you.