Chasing Steamers

If you are looking for easy money, go elsewhere!

Pinnacle Steamers are telegram channels with instant notifications for price drops at Pinnacle. The bot will send a message whenever odds drop significantly for matches starting within 24 hours.

The associated betting strategy Chasing Steamers is explained further below.

Supported markets are moneyline, spread and totals and an alert will look something like this.

The odds for Under 154.5 Goals dropped from 2.22 to 1.781 (a difference of 11.1% in implied probability).

Odds to beat represents the fair odds and is the theoretical break-even point. In other words: In order to make money long-term (+ev bet) you would need to get a price that is higher than the ‘odds to beat’ price (1.902 in the example above).

10%-value is the price that yields a 10% roi in the long-run. In fact this is what I use and I only place a bet if I get at least this price. In this particular case I’d only place a bet if I get 2.092 (or above).

Limit is the allowed maximum bet at Pinnacle at the time of the drop. I personally ignore this value completely.

Bet365 Selection is the corresponding bet taken from the bet365 main market. Please note that the bet365 line can differ from the initial drop line, i.e. bet365 may offer Under 155.5 while the drop happened in the Under 154.5 market (as shown above). The value for the alternative market (e.g. Under 155.5) is computed accordingly.

Bet365 Colour Code

- 🟢 10%+ (recommended bet)
- 🟡 0-10% (possible bet)
- 🔴 <0% (no bet)

Bet365 Link takes you directly to the bet365 main markets.

IMPORTANT! Bet365 data has been added just for reference as it is a main book that a lot of people use. However you can use whatever bookmaker you’d like (not just bet365)!

Join the free demo channel Pinnacle Steamers (Demo) and use it for as long as you like!

The demo feed contains all sports with all features enabled, but the content is limited.

To consume an uninterrupted, ad-free feed with all selections please subscribe to one of my PREMIUM channels.

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All Sports package grants access to all 4 premium feeds (Soccer, Basketball, Tennis & Various Sports).

The PREMIUM feeds offer exceptional value for the quality you get and are priced very cheaply. In fact using the outlined strategy below only three (3!!!) €50 bets would cover your monthly sub fee.

There are multiple ways you could take advantage of the feeds, most importantly value betting or arbing.

A popular value betting strategy would be Chasing Steamers which I will discuss in detail below.

♨️ CHASING STEAMERS ♨️

An applied, real world strategy to generate profits from betting markets.

Current profit is +€28,543.20 from €218,350.00 staked. +13.07% ROI. Track all bets live here Steamers Bets (updated November 27th, 2023).

INTRODUCTION

Chasing Steamers is a highly effective yet simple strategy to exploit bookmakers’ mispricings. It’s very similar to the well-known #WisdomOfTheCrowd strategy explained in full here The Wisdom Of The Crowd by @12Xpert

Both use efficient market hypothesis, but what we are specifically looking for in the steamers-strategy is delays in price updates by various bookmakers.

We use Pinnacle Dropping Odds feeds (see above) to receive instant notifications when a price drops significantly. We choose Pinnacle as our reference book as price updates are driven by volume, i.e. information is expressed in money staked.

In other words: If a price drops significantly more information has become available.

We can now check if our bookie has already adjusted for the price change. If not, happy days, we’ll get on!

Ok, enough of the theory. Let’s look at a real-world example…

A REAL-WORLD EXAMPLE

On the steamers @telegram channel we received the following alert.

In this particular case the odds for Union Magdalena dropped from 1.847 to 1.500!

The large drop is the result of someone placing multiple limit-bets at Pinnacle, meaning more information has become available about this particular event.

We now have to check if the bookmaker at our disposal has yet adapted for the price change.

In this particular case my bookie was slow and still had 1.75 available for an Union Magdalena win. This means the bookmaker has not yet adjusted for the price change.

Note the ‘odds-to-beat’ price at 1.567 which is the absolute minimum price I need to get to turn a profit!

I personally stick with the 10%-value price, which represents the price that would theoretically yield a 10% ROI in the long-run. I think it’s important to add a bit of a cushion to the otb price to compensate for possible drifts which usually happen immediately after the price cut (due to arbitrage bettors).

Hence I make sure to get at least 1.724.

1.75 vs 1.724 is fine and a definite bet for me in this example.

IMPORTANT! THE BETS MUST NOT BE PLACED AT PINNACLE. After the price drop it’s too late and the value is gone at Pinnacle.

PICK ARRIVAL TIME & DAY

Selections can arrive 24/7, but they are not evenly distributed across all weekdays. Weekends are busier, so are morning and afternoon hours.

I.e. on a Saturday you can expect an average of 113 selections hitting your @telegram inbox (across all sports)!

I.e. you can expect 111 basketball alerts in one week!

So if you want to make the most of your time you could skip weekdays completely and focus on weekends (Fri – Sun make up for 70% of all picks).

TRACKING THE BETS

All my bets can be tracked at this spreadsheet Steamers Bets

Please note that these are my PERSONAL bets that I place at my local bookmaker using the Pinnacle Steamers feed. There is no guarantee that you can replicate these. In fact you will likely have a different set of bets depending on what bookmaker you use and what markets are available to you.

However this spreadsheet should give you a rough idea what’s possible. If you make sure to bet only above the 10%-value price you will be profitable in the long run.

Please note that I have a very effortless approach to this. Very often the market is not available at my bookmaker, sometimes I’m too late and the odds have already moved, sometimes I just don’t have the time to place the bets. You will likely experience similar issues yourself.

Don’t beat yourself up if you miss out on a bet or two. There are literally thousands of opportunities per year. In fact you can expect over 12000 bets across all channels per year.

Placing only a very tiny subset of the selections can be very rewarding and will pay for much more than your sub fees.

A NOTE ON CLV (= CLOSING LINE VALUE)

Don’t judge your bet record too early!

Variance plays a huge role in sportsbetting and even samples over a few hundred bets are often meaningless if you consider the actual profits only.

The way to judge your bets is via clv (closing line value). This is an important concept to understand! I have written an article on this subject available on my homepage How Good Is A Betting Tipster

Closing line value (CLV) is a measure of the value of a bet at the time it is placed compared to the closing odds. You can calculate it by comparing the odds you received when you placed your bet to the final odds when the event starts. If the odds you received were better than the closing odds (+ margin), then the bet has positive CLV. If the odds you received were worse than the closing odds, then the bet has negative CLV.

You don’t usually need a very large sample if you use clv. I’d say 100 bets is sufficient.

Here is the short version: IF YOU HAVE POSITIVE CLV YOU ARE GUARANTEED A LONG-TERM WINNER!

The clv metric is also available in the stats section of the spreadsheet. This is what we are monitoring (and not the actual profits).

BEST PRACTICE & SOME ADVICE

GET ON RIGHT AWAY OR LEAVE IT! If you receive the alert look the bet up at your book right away. Place the bet at 10%+ and you’re done. If you can’t obtain the odds forget it and move on. If you are late (5+ minutes after the alert arrived) forget it and move on.

I usually add 10% to the otb price and check if odds (or better) are available. If yes, then I bet the selection. If not I leave it. Very simple. No hassle. Lots of bets will not be available at your book. Keep cool and move on. There are hundreds of selections each month. Even a tiny subset will more than pay for your monthly sub fees.

Don’t sign up if you’re not comfortable with lower leagues! Vast majority of drops will be in lower divisions!

Check for derivative markets! Oftentimes the specified market is not available at your book. E.g. ‘Over 2.5’ was advised in the channel, but your book only offers the ‘Over 3.5’. You can bet the alternative line as well because the 2.5 & 3.5 total lines correlate. In other words: If one line is +ev, an alternative line is (very likely) also +ev!

If you have an active subscription and would like to sign up for the package I would recommend the following procedure:
- Unsubscribe directly from the membership channel you signed up.
- Let your sub expire, i.e. use it until the end of your sub period (the bot will kick you out automatically).
- Subscribe for the package.
- This way you won’t lose out on your remaining days you have left on your active subscription.

If you would like to unsubscribe, please do this via the @telegram channel you signed up (there is an ‘Unsubscribe’ button). The bot then cancels your sub, but you still have access until the end of your sub period. If you cancel your recurring payment through the payment gateway (e.g. PayPal) your sub will be cancelled and you will lose access immediately.

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