You hear a lot of sports bettors say it, “I beat the closing price on that bet” but what does it really mean and why is it important to winning when it comes to betting on sports?
The closing price is the betting price at the sportsbooks when all betting is closed and the game is about to start. It is the most accurate price because all of the money has been bet and all available information and opinions have been factored in.
Closing price value is determined by comparing the price on a bet placed at an earlier time with the price at game start time. If you placed a bet at 2.1 and the price closed at 1.75, you have price value. Many studies have been done on the closing price and all point toward the same thing and assume that getting a better price than the close will result in +EV bets in the long run.