Which route should you take as a bettor and which is the more profitable?
A couple of thoughts/experience below to highlight the many challenges of each approach.
Let’s start with the SOFT BOOKS.
You can apply a whole bunch of +ev strategies yielding double digit ROIs. Matched betting, horse racing e/w, golf e/w, #WisdomOfTheCrowd etc. just to name a few. Generally you use various sharper sources to identify mispricings at softies.
For e.g. @bookiebashnet ‘s Horse Racing / Golf Tracker highlights mathematical loopholes in the softbook’s e/w prices. Their e/w-terms do not allow for error-free pricing in some races.
Also for golf tournaments if bookies go 8+ places in their e/w-terms often big value can be found.
#WisdomOfTheCrowd is also a simple and effective strategy that can easily exploit bookmaker’s mispricings. This approach can yield massive turnover as it can be appiled to almost any sport/market. You can read everything in detail about this approach in @12Xpert ‘s timeless article here football-data.co.uk/The_Wisdom_of_
To sum it up, the modelling is straightforward as you use sharper books to find value in soft books. This is what @spanky calls a top-down approach in his @BeBetterBettors episode podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/bebet
But of course this all comes with a drawback: ACCOUNT RESTRICTIONS!
As soon as you show any sign of shrewdness in the game you risk account limitations. Regardless of the strategy!
It’s a fact of life in betting.
Is it fair? No!
Can you change it? No!
So I can only advise to accept it as the many challenges you have to face on becoming a successful bettor.
Let’s move on to SHARP BOOKS.
Generally your ROI will be much lower with maybe the exception of some exotic derivative markets/props. Personally I’m happy with 2-3%. This would be a massive achievement for me in the long run.
A lower ROI also means that you’d need to work with a (much) larger bankroll if you’re aiming for the same profits as you would at softbooks. The real big difference however is that you now need to create your own fair prices! This is usually done with statistical models and @spanky describes this as a bottom-up approach. You could also derive your fair odds through a subjective approach, just like @nishikoripicks does it with his tennis picks.
Maybe you even have ‘insider’ information or early injury news which could give you an advantage, but subjective models are very hard to apply at scale imo. Certainly not a thing I excel at.
It’s important to note that once you found a successful model it’s not guaranteed that it will work forever.
Quite the opposite.
You can be almost sure the market catches up to you and your edge erodes over time. What this means is the need for constant tweaking of your models and looking for new possible angles. A very tiring and unfulfilling process imo.
I can not count the number of sleepless nights because of some potential model tweaks I had in my mind. Running around like a zombie the next day is also no fun!
Also while experimenting with new strategies I have always lost money. Testing my bets with real money always painfully showed me what I have missed in the backtests.
So there you go.
SOFTBOOKS: Easy to beat, but comes with account restrictions.
SHARP BOOKS/EXCHANGES: No restriction, but brutally hard to beat. Your choice:
No easy money either way!
Lately I came to realize that I’m a top-down guy. The methods are set in stone and this leaves me in peace!